In 2022, more Americans left their homes and headed south while fleeing from New York and California.
More than 450,000 people moved to Texas during the one-year period that concluded on July 1, 2022, according to recent research from analysts at Bank of America Global Research led by Rafe Jadrosich.
The company created its research using statistics from the U.S. Census Bureau and U-Haul rates. More than 400,000 people moved to Florida during this time, which resulted in the second-largest net population growth.
New York and California, on the other hand, both had net population declines of more than 300,000 over that time. Regionally, the South experienced the fastest population growth, with an increase of 1.1%, or nearly 1.4 million people, over the previous year.
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The South profited from internal migration, which saw 870,000 people move from their home state to the South, a phenomenon some business analysts have termed the “Sun Belt migration.”
According to Bank of America, the states with the most significant net population gains were Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, South Carolina, and Tennessee.
The highest gains in net domestic migration, or persons migrating from one state to another, were also seen in Florida, Texas, and North Carolina, which added 319,000, 231,000, and 100,000 new inhabitants from other states, respectively.
In comparison, some 343,000 Californians and 300,000 New Yorkers left the state for another. Regarding net domestic population outflows, Illinois ranked third, with 142,000 residents relocating to another state.
Although the trend of Americans moving to the Sun Belt region is not new, it was accelerated by the pandemic. Many locals were motivated to relocate in search of cheaper housing, nicer weather, and lower taxes due to the possibility of working remotely.
Separately, the USPS movement index, another migratory indicator, discovered a slowdown in places impacted by homebuilders like D.R. Horton (DHI) and PulteGroup (PHM), including the metro areas of Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, and Phoenix.
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Even so, travel to these regions is still increasing beyond pre-COVID levels. Given their exposure to these areas, in Jadrosich’s opinion, these homebuilders are still in a strong position. The company continues to rate the shares of D.R. Horton and PulteGroup as Buys.
Jadrosich and his team raised the price of three homebuilder stocks earlier this year: Pulte, Lennar (LEN), and Toll Brothers (TOL). They believed that in 2023, there would be a “home price correction rather than a crash” and that lower input costs, moderating interest rates, and these factors would support these stocks.
Shares of all three companies have increased by more than 15% during the past six months.