Florida stands at a critical juncture as President-elect Donald Trump prepares to unleash one of the most aggressive deportation policies ever created in U.S. history. With the possibility of a national emergency declaration to expedite deportations of undocumented immigrants, the Sunshine State may see seismic shifts in its communities, workforce, and economy.
The Scale of the Challenge
1.1 million undocumented residents in Florida, roughly 5% of the state’s population, many have contributed greatly to multi-billion-dollar industries in agriculture, construction, and tourism decidedly dependent on immigrant labor. Now they are facing the impending threat of deportation.
Programs like “Temporary Protected Status (TPS)” and “Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA)” have protected thousands of people’s legal status throughout Florida. If Trump ends those programs, he could be tearing families and communities throughout this state apart.
For instance, Miami-Dade County could be the worst hit given that almost 70% of its citizens describe themselves as being Hispanic. The country has in recent times leaned on support for Trump; hence, most people never expected to be directly affected by his immigration campaign.
Economic Costs
The mass deportation could send ripples through the economy of Florida. A report by the American Immigration Council estimated the cost of deporting 13.3 million undocumented immigrants nationwide to be at least $315 billion. Florida, Texas, and California are homes for almost half of the people targeted and will be more affected compared to other states.
Undocumented immigrants in Florida pay over $1.8 billion annually in state and local taxes. If public services do not get this revenue, stretching will occur, and programs such as Medicare and Social Security will further be weakened. More importantly, companies dependent on immigrant labor would feel labor shortages at an extreme level and further worsen the state’s labor market.
But beyond economic impacts, the human consequence of mass deportations defies quantification. Undocumented immigrants are deeply embedded in Florida’s social fabric; often, they live in mixed-status families that include U.S. citizens. Deportation could uproot 1.6 million homeowners and destabilize four million mixed-status families nationwide.
The specter of self-deportation-that undocumented immigrants would be forced by the threat of enforcement into an exodus-may factor in as well. Estimates are that up to 20% of those targeted by the policy would result in this activity, and the demographics of Florida would shift further.
Republican state leaders such as House Speaker Daniel Perez and Senate President Ben Albritton, up until now, have passed the buck on immigration policy to the federal government. But actions taken recently by Gov. Ron DeSantis show a new willingness to sign on to more stringent immigration policies. His 2023 law that punishes employers who hire undocumented workers has already caused labor shortages in several industries.
